Bull, Base, and Bear Investment Thesis
Build three internally consistent scenarios with explicit drivers, probabilities, and value ranges.
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7 results for “expected value”
Build three internally consistent scenarios with explicit drivers, probabilities, and value ranges.
Test whether each new unit of growth earns more than it costs — capital required, payback, and operating leverage.
Break expected equity returns into yield, growth, and valuation change components.
Build the case for where the next three to five years of growth come from — driver by driver — and what has to be true.
Evaluate a stock on forward earnings, growth, and payback — with the limits of P/E made explicit.
Compare a new idea against existing holdings and alternatives on a common expected-return basis.
Separate near-term cash needs from long-term investing and compare saving, debt repayment and investment trade-offs.